How USA Can Win Group D At The 2026 World Cup: Scenarios, Odds

The United States is through to the 2026 FIFA World Cup round of 32 following its 2-0 win over Australia at Seattle Stadium on Friday, but the top spot in Group D is still up for grabs.

The U.S. leads group D with six points after convincing multi-goal victories over Paraguay and Australia, the latter of which guaranteed its spot in the knockout stage of the tournament.

Now all that's left for the U.S. to do is win the group, which it can do on Friday, depending on the result of the Group D matchup between Türkiye and Paraguay.

So how exactly does the U.S. win Group D? Here are the key Group D clinching scenarios: If the United States wins Group D, it would mark just the third time in history that the Americans have finished atop their group at a men's FIFA World Cup.

The U.S. previously accomplished the feat in 1930, finishing ahead of Paraguay and Belgium, and again in 2010 when it barely edged England for first place because of goals scored.

After the win against Australia, the Stars and Stripes are now listed as the overwhelming favorites to win Group D at -650.

Before the tournament began, the U.S. was +5500 to win the World Cup.

Now, after its dream start, its odds have surged to +3300.

So when will the USA lose? Or, especially after its group stage dominance so far, will it even lose at all? Let’s take a look at the updated odds for the United States’ stage of elimination at FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 19.

Team USA, Stage of elimination odds Last 32: +160 (bet $10 to win $26 total)Last 16: +195 (bet $10 to win $29.50 total)Quarterfinals: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)Semifinals: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)Runner-up: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)Outright winner: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)Group stage: +50000 (bet $10 to win $5,010 total) This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners.

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After USA's opening win against Paraguay, the oddsboard projects the Americans to make it out of the group stage but fall in the first knockout-stage game.

The second result on the oddsboard is the "Last 16," meaning the USA would make it out of the group stage and win one knockout stage game, before falling in the second knockout stage game.

How would that result stack up against previous results? Well, at the 2022 World Cup, Team USA made it to the Round of 16, which was viewed as a stellar accomplishment.

In 2018, the USA did not qualify for the World Cup, and in 2014 and 2010, the Americans also made it to the Round of 16.

Their best result this century occurred in 2002, when the Americans made it all the way to the quarterfinals before being eliminated.

In 1998, Team USA lost in the group stage, in 1994, it fell in the Round of 16, and in 1990, it also fell in the group stage.

But after the dominating opening wins against Paraguay and Australia, expectations have been raised and a deep tournament run seems very possible.