Prediction accuracy
Every match prediction we publish is logged at publish-time and graded automatically after full-time. No hindsight edits, no cherry-picks. This page shows the live running totals so anyone — visitor, sceptic, partner — can verify the model is honest.
Last 7 days
52%
24 / 46 hit · ROI -29%
Brier 0.257 · LogLoss 0.705
Last 14 days
54%
85 / 157 hit · ROI -21%
Brier 0.264 · LogLoss 0.722
Last 30 days
47%
297 / 626 hit
Brier 0.244 · LogLoss 0.681
By pick type · last 14 days
| Pick | Graded | Wins | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 60 | 36 | 60% |
| Home win | 15 | 9 | 60% |
| Over 2.5 | 56 | 28 | 50% |
| Away win | 26 | 12 | 46% |
Only pick types with ≥5 graded predictions are listed.
Track the model live
Weekly accuracy report — hit rate, biggest wins, biggest misses. Honest receipts every Monday.
Methodology
- Snapshot at publish-time: every prediction is written to a self-grading log the moment we commit to it publicly. No edits after the match finishes.
- Resolution at full-time: a cron runs twice daily, fetches the final score, and grades each pick by rule (home/draw/ away/BTTS/over-under thresholds).
- No cherry-picks: every published prediction counts toward the totals — losers included.
- Brier + LogLoss: calibration metrics that measure model confidence quality, not just hit-rate. Lower is better.
18+ · model output, bet responsibly · BeGambleAware.org · past accuracy is not a guarantee of future results.