Supercomputer Ranks Every 2026 World Cup Team’s Chances of Winning

Rob is senior football editor at GiveMeSport, with over 15 years experience covering sport in various capacities since graduating from the University of Gloucestershire in 2008 with a degree in journalism.

A childhood obsession for all things football developed into a career writing about the beautiful game, initially producing content for clients including Luton Town Football Club and the PGMOL. His first big interviews were with Premier League referees Howard Webb and Michael Oliver in 2009.

He then spent four years producing written content for a betting website, mainly focusing on football, and was there to cover various games and tournaments including the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012.

Rob joined GiveMeSport in 2013 (initially as a sub-editor before becoming a senior writer and then senior editor in 2020) and has covered countless football matches and other sporting events, interviewed various high-profile figures including Rio Ferdinand, Peter Crouch and Theo Walcott, and written well over 10,000 articles during that time.

Rob has played a key role in GiveMeSport's coverage of the World Cups in 2014, 2018 and 2022, plus Euro 2016, Euro 2020 and Euro 2024, along with many Champions League finals.

While football is Rob's area of expertise, he has also covered a wide range of other sports during his time at GiveMeSport including boxing, tennis and darts, as well as the 2016, 2020 and 2024 Olympic Games.

Will Lionel Scaloni's Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to successfully defend their World Cup crown this summer? The showpiece international tournament is now firmly underway and what a start it's been.

The three host countries - the United States, Canada and Mexico - have all put on a spectacle so far, while the likes of England, France, Argentina and Spain are among the favourites to go all the way.

All eyes are now on who will be the team standing on the podium at the MetLife Stadium, New Jersey, on July 19. Will it be the reigning champions or will there be a new champion in town? Opta's Supercomputer has updates its stats, listing every team's chances of going all the way.

Having qualified for the first time since 1974 following a 2-0 victory over Nicaragua, there were not many pre-tournament expectations of Haiti, a country whose national football team employs a manager who has never stepped foot on their land. They - alongside first-timers Curacao - have a zero per chant of lifting the World Cup trophy on July 19.

It's also be the first time Uzbekistan have ever played at the showpiece tournament - and, spearheaded by Manchester City youngster Abdukodir Khusanov, the first Uzbek to play for the Citizens, they've been given a slightly better chance of being successful (0.03%), the same as Jordan.

The third-smallest nation to ever qualify for the World Cup, Cape Verde, and four other countries (Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Iraq, and Chris Wood-led New Zealand) are all in line for a tricky summer given they have been given a miniscule chance of winning the lot.

The FIFA World Cup generally sees the biggest nations come together to produce footballing excellence - but sometimes the underdogs leave a mark.

Also with a near-impossible chance of achieving the utterly unthinkable are DR Congo, Panama and Tunisia. For these sorts of nations, their version of dreaming big may not be the same as the likes of England and France - but, instead, pulling off a shock upset or making it out of the group stage will count as success.

DR Congo's 1-1 draw against Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal was among the most surprising results of the opening round of matches.

Steve Clarke's Scotland, appearing on international football's biggest stage for the first time since 1998, have been given a 0.18% chance of winning the competition, while Iran have a 0.13% chance of causing a monumental upset on US soil.

48-31 - Opta Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup

Can Ivory Coast, three-time champions of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), achieve similar success on a much wider scale? On the face of it, going all the way is unlikely, but Opta's supercomputer has still given Manchester United's Amad and his compatriots a 0.35% chance after beating Ecuador.

Mohamed Salah, widely regarded as one of the best African players of all time thanks to his final third exploits, is a player who dreams of lifting the biggest trophies on the planet - but the World Cup is, perhaps, a step too far for his Egypt side. That said, a 1-1 draw against Belgium in their opening match was respectable.

Even the most ardent supporters of Jesse Marsch-led Canada - the least likely host nation to win the tournament - would struggle to put together a compelling case to suggest anything special could happen. They've been given a chance of 0.42% of reigning triumphant on home soil, but they'll be looking to upset the apple cart.

Albeit in a friendly, Pape Thiaw's Senegal are one of only two nations to beat England since Thomas Tuchel's appointment at the turn of the year - and they have a squad packed to the brim with talent: Iliman Ndiaye, Sadio Mane, Malick Diouf spring to mind. The Lions of Teranga impressed against France but a 3-1 defeat means their odds of going all the way this summer have been reduced to 0.52%.

South Korea beat Czech Republic in their opening match but still have less than a one per cent chance of winning the tournament, while more was expected of Ecuador against Ivory Coast.

30-21 - Opta Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup

Mexico's chances of winning the World Cup increased to 1.30% after beating South Africa in the opening match of the tournament. The joint-hosts are now ahead of Croatia (1.16%), who were beaten 4-2 by England on June 17.

Australia secured an impressive 2-0 win over Turkey, bumping their chances up to 0.95%. Meanwhile, AFCON champions Morocco are in 13th place following a 1-1 draw against Carlo Ancelotti's Brazil.