World Cup ‘26: Opta says Morocco favorites against Scotland with 54.9% chance - what the stats show

Morocco is the favorite ahead of their match against Scotland at 11 pm in Boston in the second round of Group C at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Opta’s supercomputer, which gives the Atlas Lions a 54.9% chance of winning across 25,000 pre-match simulations.

The remaining simulations give 20.1% to Scotland and a 25.1% chance of a draw.

Tonight’s match is likely to be tense as the picture of who could move to the next round will start to become a little bit clearer.

So far, Scotland tops Group C with three points after beating Haiti 1-0 in a very close match despite the scoreline.

Avoiding defeat against Morocco could give them a huge chance of reaching the next round of the World Cup for the first time ever.

Scotland go into tonight’s game already on three yellow cards from their opening match, with Aaron Hickey, Kenny McLean, and Findlay Curtis all booked, which could impact their playing time.

Opta Analysis had already predicted Hickey would be in Scotland’s starting XI for tonight’s match against Morocco.

This means Hickey will have to be more cautious in defense to avoid a second yellow card. But at the same time, this could give Morocco a bit more freedom, especially in duels and attacking transitions.

Morocco, though, don’t have that concern.

Both teams will also have to keep an eye on referee Ilgiz Tantashev, who averages around 3.9 yellow cards per game, with 11 straight reds and 8 second yellows across his career, according to Sofascore.

During the Morocco-Brazil Group C match, the Atlas Lions showed more control than expected, completing 123 passes in the final third, the most in the group and their highest total in a World Cup match on record.

Saibari gave Morocco the lead in the 21st minute before Vinícius Júnior equalized, with Brazil scoring just over five minutes after the hydration break where Carlo Ancelotti made a tactical change that improved their rhythm.

Possession was almost even at 51.4% for Brazil and 48.6% for Morocco, with Brazil also winning more corners, six to just two.

Hakimi led the full-back role with three shots, the most in the match, and three chances created, also the highest.

His heat map shows a strong presence on the right flank in the first half, spending most of his time high up the pitch in Brazil’s half.

He also led Morocco in tackles with six, fouls won with five, and duels won with 11.

Overall, Morocco committed 14 fouls against Brazil’s 16, showing a cleaner and more controlled performance, while Scotland’s game against Haiti was more physical and foul-heavy, with 21 fouls compared to Haiti’s 23.

The draw kept Morocco unbeaten in World Cup group games for five matches (W2 D3), matching the African record set by Cameroon and Senegal.

At the same time, Morocco have never won their opening World Cup match since 1970, with four draws and three defeats across seven tournaments.

Morocco are now viewed as a real contender rather than an underdog, with players like Hakimi, Brahim Díaz, Mazraoui, Saibari, and Bouaddi leading the way, raising the national team’s value to around €498 million, making it the most valuable Arab national team.

Their historic run at the 2022 World Cup, where they reached the semi-finals under former coach Walid Regragui, along with their 2025 Africa Cup of Nations campaign, has led many football professionals to see them as well-placed to spring another surprise.

Also, nine of their last 12 World Cup games have been against European teams, the highest total of any side since 2018.

In the 2018 World Cup in Russia, the Atlas Lions faced Portugal and Spain. At the 2022 World Cup, they met Croatia twice, once in the group stage and again in the third-place play-off, along with Belgium, Spain, Portugal, and France. This year, they face Scotland.

The Opta supercomputer gives Morocco a 91.6% chance of moving to the knockout stage, compared with 80.6% for Scotland.