The three factors
1. Source-publisher tier · 0–60 points
- Tier 1 (60 pts): BBC, Sky, The Athletic, Reuters, AP, club official statements.
- Tier 2 (45 pts): The Guardian, Marca, AS, ESPN, Football Italia, established African desks (Complete Sports, AllNigeriaSoccer, Soccer Laduma, NFF, Hespress, AllAfrica, BBC Sport Africa).
- Tier 3 (30 pts): Goal, GiveMeSport, Bleacher Report, Mirror, Sun, talkSPORT, Football Insider, Caught Offside, 90min, Ghana Soccer Net.
- Tier 4 (15 pts): Aggregators, anonymous sources, unranked publishers.
2. Attribution language · 0–25 points
We score the strongest claim verb that appears in the headline + description:
- 25 pts: “official statement”, “club confirmed”, “completed”, “signed for”
- 22 pts: “agreed”, “deal agreed”, “done deal”
- 18 pts: “expected to sign”, “advanced talks”, “set to join”
- 14 pts: “in talks”, “negotiations”, “negotiating”
- 10 pts: “interested in”, “linked with”, “target”
- 5 pts: “could”, “may”, “rumour”, “reportedly”
3. Specificity · 0–15 points
- 15 pts: Fee + contract length + medical date all named.
- 10 pts: Two of the three named.
- 5 pts: One specific detail named.
- 0 pts: No specifics, the rumour is vibes-only.
The bands
- Verified (85+): club statement or tier-1 source citing one. Trust this.
- Strong (65–84): tier-1/2 source, advanced-talks language, specifics named. High likelihood of completion.
- Moderate (45–64): credible source, in-talks language. Worth following but not banker.
- Weak (25–44): tier-2/3 source, linked-with language, no specifics. Wait for confirmation.
- Speculation (under 25): tier-3/4 source, speculative language, no specifics. Treat as fan content.
What we don’t score on
Confirmation bias against a publisher (their past hit rate is irrelevant to today’s story), the player’s salability, the buyer club’s financial situation, or the seller club’s incentive to leak. The score is about the SHAPE of the rumour as it’s being reported, not our editorial read of whether it’ll happen. We publish the latter as opinion under named bylines.
See it in action
Reliability scores render on the Africa-First Transfer Tracker and on the main Transfer Hub as the badge in the top-right of every card. Hover for the breakdown.