Bafana disciplinary record to haunt them if they finish 3rd?

Bafana Bafana's two red cards against Mexico could severely dent their chances of qualifying, should they end up in the dreaded third spot, where eight best third-placed teams will qualify for the round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Due to the increased number of teams in the 2026 edition at Mexico, Canada and the United States of America, there are chances for teams that finish third to make it into the next round, eight in total, in addition to the two teams per group (out of 12 groups), that will automatically book their spot in the last 32.

Bafana are already on the back foot after a 2-0 defeat to co-hosts El Tri in their opening match in Group, which has seen them occupy the last spot in the group.

What was more damaging for South Africa was the two red-cards they received in the same match, where Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane were dismissed for different reasons.

Should Bafana be unable to finish within the top two sides in the group and end up in third place, their disciplinary record could be a factor if they end up being tied with a particular team, in the same standing in the other group.

If SA end up with the same number of points in a third position with another team or other teams, the next determining tie breaker would be the superior goal difference and the following is the superior goal scored.

However, crucially, the fourth permutation would be a fair play conduct, where there would be disciplinary points based on yellow cards and red cards accumulated throughout the tournament.

In the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Senegal were eliminated on a worse disciplinary record than Japan, after both teams had the same number of points (4), same goal difference and on a head-to-head they had played to a 2-2 draw in Group H.

Then it all came down to a disciplinary record, where Japan had accumulated six yellow cards and The Lions Of Teranga had eight yellow cards in total and as a result, the West African giants fell away and The Samurai Blue took second spot and went through to the round of 16.

Two red cards for Bafana already puts them at a huge disadvantage, should they finish third and be tied with another team, at least on the first three tie breaker rules, looking to qualify via the same route.