CL final predictions: Arsenal can go from nearly-men to double winners

Arsenal face Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final and by ending their wait for the Premier League title, the Gunners have removed the fear, tension and doubt that has haunted previous campaigns, writes betting guru Lewis Jones. He has three tips for the big one.....

Arsenal winning the Premier League is a real gamechanger for me when it comes to this game from a betting perspective.

Arsenal are 11/10 with Sky Bet to win Saturday's final - whether in 90 minutes, after extra-time or on penalties - and complete the double. PSG are 8/11 favourites to lift the trophy for the second time in a row.

I think those odds should be closer together as the psychology of this Champions League final feels massively underrated in the betting. I was expecting the market to move more favourably towards Arsenal since they won the Premier League - but it's not shifted at all.

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Arsenal have carried the burden of being nearly-men. But winning the Premier League changes absolutely everything.

That monkey is off their back now. The emotional release of finally getting over the line matters. You could see it in the celebrations - this could now be a squad suddenly liberated from the fear of failure.

This final is now framed as an opportunity rather than an obligation.

Winning the Champions League and completing the double would elevate this season into legendary territory - but if they fall short, they are still Premier League champions.

History has already been written. This team has gone down in history whatever happens here.

Arsenal are chasing a bonus prize. That makes Arsenal dangerous.

And just even from a tactical set-up I think Arsenal are very well equipped to stop PSG from having the space and territory to seriously hurt them. Mikel Arteta will make this ugly and produce a game where whoever defends the best, wins.

The Gunners have kept nine clean sheets in their last 14 Champions League games - the axis of David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel in terms of doing their own job is just as world-class as the PSG front three of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue.

Arsenal have yet to concede from open play in the knockout stages - and three of the four goals they conceded in the league phase came in the final two games when qualification was all-but confirmed and they heavily rotated.

This is a defence that can lead them to glory.

Matches of this enormity are full of betting opportunities when it comes to the prop markets.

An angle I always like to focus on in finals is fouls. Increased jeopardy, extra motivation and the good chance that a game of this magnitude becomes very scrappy does tend to see higher foul averages than what the algorithms that price up these markets come up with.

The last 30 Europa League and Champions League finals are averaging 28.5 fouls per 90.

For context, this season the average Premier League game has seen 21.5 fouls per 90. And the Champions League has seen 22.5 fouls per game.

So from a basic drawdown of the data over a pretty good sample size you can probably add six fouls to the expectant averages for a major European final.

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This means there is great opportunity here to back a player in the player fouls markets.