COLUMN: The last sprint of the LaLiga relegation race – how all five sides are shaping up

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Even if Hansi Flick’s Barcelona has comfortably conquered the trophy, and Champions League places are sealed, the final La Liga matchday will still decide the last two European spots and the last two relegation spots. Real Oviedo’s romantic return to the top-flight ended in an unceremonious and matter-of-fact way last week, but two trap doors to Segunda still remain. Heading into the final matchday, five teams are still fighting for safety: Levante, Osasuna, Elche, Girona, and Mallorca.

Perhaps the highlight of this final weekend is the ‘do-or-die’ showdown at Montilivi, where 18th-placed Girona host 17th-placed Elche. A Girona victory saves them and likely dooms Elche, while Elche only need a draw to stay up. Meanwhile, Mallorca faces a must-win game at home against the already-relegated Oviedo, praying for a complicated matrix of results from Girona, Getafe, and Real Betis to trigger a favourable three-way tiebreak. Levante and Osasuna both control their own destinies, needing just a single point against Real Betis and Getafe, respectively, to avoid relegation. We provide the full summary of the possible outcomes in the following article. Here are your relegation contenders and what brought them to where they are now.

RCD Mallorca find themselves in the deepest trouble of the remaining candidates, sitting in 19th place with 39 points. Teams that get relegated often struggle to be efficient enough ‘in the boxes’. Thus, a good keeper and a good striker will go a long way toward helping teams stay in La Liga, and Mallorca can certainly boast of having two such players.

Goalkeeper Leo Roman is on the longlist for Spain’s World Cup squad, and Vedat Muriqi is the second-highest goal scorer in the league, which makes Mallorca’s struggles even more puzzling. Mallorca’s squad was not built for a relegation scrap, but to have an outside shot at European spots.

Perhaps Mallorca became too reliant on long balls and crosses to Muriqi and simplified their attacking approach too much. However, the biggest change for Mallorca in the last two years has been the collapse of what previously was a very solid defence. According to Opta Analyst data, Mallorca have conceded the highest expected goals in La Liga. As coaches and players came and went, the defensive system eroded little by little.

In an effort to fix their trajectory, the board brought in Argentinian manager Martin Demichelis. Demichelis tried to revitaliwe the defence and inject a more robust pressing style. Despite some good initial results, the push has not been enough, and the team lost key games against other relegation rivals such as Elche and Levante.

For Mallorca, relegation would be traumatic. Los Bermellones have spent the last few years establishing themselves as a stable, gritty La Liga mid-table side, even reaching the Copa del Rey final in 2024. Dropping down to Segunda would completely derail their long-term project and almost certainly force the sale of Muriqi and their core foundational talent.

It was not surprising that Girona couldn’t repeat their historic 2023-24 run that saw them almost challenge for the title and reach the Champions League. However, falling all the way from one end of the table to another was more unexpected. They now sit in 18th place with 40 points.

Manager Michel Sanchez has never been one to compromise much on his offensive and high-possession principles. His previous Huesca and Rayo Vallecano teams didn’t last too long in Primera precisely because Michel never quite found the balance between his will for offensive freedom and the need for defensive discipline and solidity.

This is why Michel and Girona worked so well together at the beginning. City Football Group seemed willing to give Girona enough offensive talent to push Girona away from a relegation scrap and into the middle of the table. Michel didn’t have to worry so much about defence and order if he had enough offensive talent to realise his vision of football.

However, as Europe’s elite raided Girona’s squad after the 2023-24 season, CFG did not replace the outgoing talent with talent of a similar level, as our dear Kai Iliev explained in a previous column. Michel has tried to be more flexible this season to help Girona escape the relegation zone. And there was a moment in the season when this worked, but, similar to Mallorca, Girona has lost steam in the last 8 games of the season.

Aside from the threat of relegation, Michel’s contract with Girona ends this season, and it seems unlikely he will renew. Michel’s tactics benefit from more offensive talent, and he likely has offers from clubs with more resources than Girona that will give him that offensive talent. For Girona, a future without Michel looks uncertain, and Segunda can make it even more so.

Elche occupies the final ‘safe’ spot in 17th place with 42 points. The season has been a full rollercoaster ride for Eder Sarabia’s team. Last summer, there were doubts about how well Sarabia’s squad and playing style would do in La Liga. These doubts were muted rather quickly as Sarabia’s Elche became one of the breakthrough teams in Spanish and European football. They dominated possession while remaining solid and energetic in defence, making them look like challengers for European spots.

However, after a run of games without wins in January and February, the team moved closer and closer to the relegation zone. The solid defence mostly vanished in 2026, and Elche now has the second-worst xG conceded in the league, consistently leaking shots and goals from set pieces and individual errors. Their away record is also poor, with only a single away win this season against Real Oviedo.

Sarabia’s team has enjoyed an uptick in results lately, including a win against Atletico. They are in a far more positive dynamic than before, but that was not enough to fully pull them out of relegation danger. Not losing to Girona will be enough for them to stay in La Liga, but Elche’s away record does not inspire much confidence. To add insult to injury, Sarabia will not be on the bench for this game since he was suspended for allegedly insulting the referee after the game against Real Betis. A loss would likely be fatal unless a string of results in other games goes their way.

Relegation would hurt, especially after how well the club managed certain phases of the season. However, even if the club is relegated, Sarabia’s project has proven quite viable in La Liga, and the club would do well to continue supporting him.

Well, this is a bit embarrassing. The author of this column wrote a couple of months ago about Osasuna’s project with Alessio Lisci and how it seemed ready to take off and maybe even mount a dark-horse challenge for European spots. A month ago, Osasuna wouldn’t even have been in a conversation about relegation candidates.